# Quantitative evaluation of availability measures of gas distribution networks

## L. Carnevali, M. Paolieri, F. Tarani, E. Vicario

**Abstract:** Rising competition among gas distribution companies, growing
availability of smart metering devices, and increasingly strict
requirements on agreed service levels stimulate research on advanced
modeling and solution techniques for quantitative evaluation of gas
distribution networks. We propose a novel methodology for modeling and
evaluation of the transient network behavior after a component
failure. The approach relies on a topological model of the fluid
dynamics and a stochastic timed model of the actions started after a
component failure. Fluid dynamic analysis evaluates the service level
of end-users in each possible operating condition of the network, also
supporting the derivation of stochastic parameters for the failure
management model. In turn, such model is analyzed to evaluate the
probability over time of the network operating conditions. Transient
probabilities are then aggregated on the basis of the results of fluid
dynamic analysis to derive availability measures. Special attention is
paid to make the structure of the stochastic model independent of the
network topology. To provide a proof of concept, the approach is
exemplified on a small-sized network equipped with a backup pipe,
evaluating for each end-user the transient probability of not being
served after a component failure as well as the mean outage time.
These measures comprise a valid ground for the evaluation of different
failure management processes and the definition of demand-response
strategies.

Stochastic ProcessesReliability ModelsCritical InfrastructuresApplications

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